The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer presents as advanced disease in >80% of patients; yet, appropriate ages to consider prevention and early detection strategies are poorly defined. We investigated age-specific associations and attributable risks of pancreatic cancer for established modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 167 483 participants from two prospective US cohort studies with 1190 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during >30 years of follow-up; 5107 pancreatic cancer cases and 8845 control participants of European ancestry from a completed multicenter genome-wide association study (GWAS); and 248 893 pancreatic cancer cases documented in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Across different age categories, we investigated cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, height, and non-O blood group in the prospective cohorts; weighted polygenic risk score of 22 previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the GWAS; and male sex and black race in the SEER Program. RESULTS: In the prospective cohorts, all five risk factors were more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger participants, with associations attenuated among those aged >70 years. The hazard ratios comparing participants with three to five risk factors with those with no risk factors were 9.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.11-20.77] among those aged ≤60 years, 3.00 (95% CI 1.85-4.86) among those aged 61-70 years, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.10-1.94) among those aged >70 years (Pheterogeneity = 3×10-5). These factors together were related to 65.6%, 49.7%, and 17.2% of incident pancreatic cancers in these age groups, respectively. In the GWAS and the SEER Program, the associations with the polygenic risk score, male sex, and black race were all stronger among younger individuals (Pheterogeneity ≤0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Established risk factors are more strongly associated with earlier-onset pancreatic cancer, emphasizing the importance of age at initiation for cancer prevention and control programs targeting this highly lethal malignancy.

Plasma inflammatory cytokines and survival of pancreatic cancer patients.

OBJECTIVES: Inflammation and inflammatory conditions have been associated with pancreatic cancer risk and progression in a number of clinical, epidemiological, and animal model studies. The goal of the present study is to identify plasma markers of inflammation associated with survival of pancreatic cancer patients, and assess their joint contribution to patient outcome. METHODS: We measured circulating levels of four established markers of inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor type II (sTNF-RII), and macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1)) in 446 patients enrolled in an ongoing prospective clinic-based study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for death were estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Overall mortality was significantly increased in patients in the top quartile of CRP (HR = 2.52, 95% CI: 1.82-3.49), IL-6 (HR = 2.78, 95% CI: 2.03-3.81), sTNF-RII (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.46-2.72), and MIC-1 (HR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.83-3.50), compared to those in the bottom quartile (P-trend <0.0001 for all four comparisons). Furthermore, patients with higher circulating concentrations of all four cytokines had a median survival of 3.7 months; whereas, those with lower levels had a median survival of 19.2 months (HR = 4.55, 95% CI: 2.87-7.20, P-trend <0.0001). CONCLUSION: Individual elevated plasma inflammatory cytokines are associated with significant and dramatic reductions in pancreatic cancer patient survival. Furthermore, we observed an independent combined effect of those cytokines on patient survival, suggesting that multiple inflammatory pathways are likely involved in PDAC progression. Future research efforts to target the inflammatory state using combination strategies in pancreatic cancer patients are warranted.

Central adiposity, obesity during early adulthood, and pancreatic cancer mortality in a pooled analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI), a measure of obesity typically assessed in middle age or later, is known to be positively associated with pancreatic cancer. However, little evidence exists regarding the influence of central adiposity, a high BMI during early adulthood, and weight gain after early adulthood on pancreatic cancer risk. DESIGN: We conducted a pooled analysis of individual-level data from 20 prospective cohort studies in the National Cancer Institute BMI and Mortality Cohort Consortium to examine the association of pancreatic cancer mortality with measures of central adiposity (e.g. waist circumference; n = 647 478; 1947 pancreatic cancer deaths), BMI during early adulthood (ages 18-21 years) and BMI change between early adulthood and cohort enrollment, mostly in middle age or later (n = 1 096 492; 3223 pancreatic cancer deaths). Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Higher waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.17 per 0.1 increment) and waist circumference (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.14 per 10 cm) were associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer mortality, even when adjusted for BMI at baseline. BMI during early adulthood was associated with increased pancreatic cancer mortality (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.25 per 5 kg/m(2)), with increased risk observed in both overweight and obese individuals (compared with BMI of 21.0 to <23 kg/m(2), HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.20-1.55 for BMI 25.0 < 27.5 kg/m(2), HR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.20-1.84 for BMI 27.5 to <30 kg/m(2), HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.11-1.85 for BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)). BMI gain after early adulthood, adjusted for early adult BMI, was less strongly associated with pancreatic cancer mortality (HR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10 per 5 kg/m(2)). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support an association between pancreatic cancer mortality and central obesity, independent of BMI, and also suggest that being overweight or obese during early adulthood may be important in influencing pancreatic cancer mortality risk later in life.

Nut consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer in women.

BACKGROUND: Increasing nut intake has been associated with reduced risk of diabetes mellitus, which is a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We prospectively followed 75 680 women in the Nurses' Health Study, and examined the association between nut consumption and pancreatic cancer risk. Participants with a previous history of cancer were excluded. Nut consumption was assessed at baseline and updated every 2 to 4 years. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We documented 466 incident cases of pancreatic cancer. After adjusting for age, height, smoking, physical activity, and total energy intake, women who consumed a 28-g (1 oz) serving size of nuts ≥2 times per week experienced a significantly lower risk of pancreatic cancer (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.47-0.92; P for trend=0.007) when compared with those who largely abstained from nuts. The results did not appreciably change after further adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and history of diabetes mellitus (RR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.48-0.95; P for trend=0.01). The inverse association persisted within strata defined by BMI, physical activity, smoking, and intakes of red meat, fruits, and vegetables. CONCLUSION: Frequent nut consumption is inversely associated with risk of pancreatic cancer in this large prospective cohort of women, independent of other potential risk factors for pancreatic cancer.

Global, multicenter, randomized, phase II trial of gemcitabine and gemcitabine plus AGS-1C4D4 in patients with previously untreated, metastatic pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated AGS-1C4D4, a fully human monoclonal antibody to prostate stem cell antigen (PSCA), with gemcitabine in a randomized, phase II study of metastatic pancreatic cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0/1 and previously untreated, metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma were randomly assigned 1:2 to gemcitabine (1000 mg/m(2) weekly seven times, 1 week rest, weekly three times q4weeks) or gemcitabine plus AGS-1C4D4 (48 mg/kg loading dose, then 24 mg/kg q3weeks IV). The primary end point was 6-month survival rate (SR). Archived tumor samples were collected for pre-planned analyses by PSCA expression. RESULTS: Between April 2009 and May 2010, 196 patients were randomly assigned to gemcitabine (n = 63) or gemcitabine plus AGS-1C4D4 (n = 133). The 6-month SR was 44.4% (95% CI, 31.9-57.5) in the gemcitabine arm and 60.9% (95% CI, 52.1-69.2) in the gemcitabine plus AGS-1C4D4 arm (P = 0.03), while the median survival was 5.5 versus 7.6 months and the response rate was 13.1% versus 21.6% in the two arms, respectively. The 6-month SR was 57.1% in the gemcitabine arm versus 79.5% in the gemcitabine plus AGS-1C4D4 arm among the PSCA-positive subgroup and 31.6% versus 46.2% among the PSCA-negative subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: This randomized, phase II study achieved its primary end point, demonstrating an improved 6-month SR with addition of AGS-1C4D4 to gemcitabine among patients with previously untreated, metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00902291.

A multicenter phase II trial of single-agent cetuximab in advanced esophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is overexpressed in a significant proportion of esophageal and gastric carcinomas. Although previous studies have examined tyrosine kinase inhibitors of EGFR, there remains limited data regarding the role of EGFR-directed monoclonal antibody therapy in these malignancies. We carried out a multi-institutional phase II study of cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody against EGFR, in patients with unresectable or metastatic esophageal or gastric adenocarcinoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty-five patients with previously treated metastatic esophageal or gastric adenocarcinoma were treated with weekly cetuximab, at an initial dose of 400 mg/m(2) followed by weekly infusions at 250 mg/m(2). Patients were followed for toxicity, treatment response, and survival. RESULTS: Treatment with cetuximab was well tolerated; no patients were taken off study due to drug-related adverse events. One (3%) partial treatment response was noted. Two (6%) patients had stable disease after 2 months of treatment. Median progression-free survival and overall survival were 1.6 and 3.1 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: Although well tolerated, cetuximab administered as a single agent had minimal clinical activity in patients with metastatic esophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma. Ongoing studies of EGFR inhibitors in combination with other agents may define a role for these agents in the treatment of esophageal and gastric cancer.

Predicted vitamin D status and pancreatic cancer risk in two prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating vitamin D status in relation to pancreatic cancer risk have yielded inconsistent results. METHODS: We prospectively followed 118 597 participants in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study from 1986 to 2006. We calculated a 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) score from known predictors of vitamin D status for each individual and then examined the predicted 25(OH)D levels in relation to pancreatic cancer risk. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, race, height, smoking, and diabetes. We then further adjusted for body mass index (BMI) and physical activity in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: During 20 years of follow-up, we identified 575 incident pancreatic cancer cases. Higher 25(OH)D score was associated with a significant reduction in pancreatic cancer risk; compared with the lowest quintile, participants in the highest quintile of 25(OH)D score had an adjusted RR of 0.65 (95% CI=0.50-0.86; P(trend)=0.001). Results were similar when we further adjusted for BMI and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher 25(OH)D score was associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in these two prospective cohort studies.

Prospective study of predictors of vitamin D status and survival in patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: In an earlier study, a 25-hydroxyvitamin D(3) (25(OH)D) score calculated from known predictors of vitamin D status significantly predicted plasma levels of 25(OH)D and the risk of colorectal cancer, but the influence of the 25(OH)D score on survival after diagnosis is unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively examined the influence of post-diagnosis predicted 25(OH)D levels on mortality among 1017 participants in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study who were diagnosed with colorectal cancer from 1986 to 2004. Colorectal cancer-specific and overall mortality according to quintiles of predicted 25(OH)D levels were assessed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for other risk factors of survival. RESULTS: Higher predicted 25(OH)D levels were associated with a significant reduction in colorectal cancer-specific (P trend=0.02) and overall mortality (P trend=0.002). Compared with levels in the lowest quintile, participants with predicted 25(OH)D levels in the highest quintile had an adjusted HR of 0.50 (95% CI, 0.26-0.95) for cancer-specific mortality and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.42-0.93) for overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Higher predicted 25(OH)D levels after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer may be associated with improved survival. Further study of the vitamin D pathway in colorectal cancer is warranted.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor axis and the risk of pancreatic cancer in four prospective cohorts.

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I induces growth in pancreatic cancer cells and blockade of the IGF-I receptor has antitumour activity. The association of plasma IGF-I and IGF binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) with pancreatic cancer risk has been investigated in two small studies, with conflicting results. We conducted a nested case-control study within four large, prospective cohorts to investigate whether prediagnostic plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-3 were associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Plasma levels in 212 cases and 635 matched controls were compared by conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for other known pancreatic cancer risk factors. No association was observed between plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3 and incident diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Relative risks for the highest vs the lowest quartile of IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGFBP-3 were 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.60-1.48), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.61-1.52), and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.75-1.92), respectively. The relative risk for the molar ratio of IGF-I and IGFBP-3, a surrogate measure for free IGF-I, was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.54-1.31). Additionally, no association was noted in stratified analyses or when requiring longer follow-up. In four prospective cohorts, we found no association between the risk of pancreatic cancer and prediagnostic plasma levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3.